What will happen if inventory continues to rise?

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Real Estate

Why that face when Residential inventory is ⬆️!?  

We've talked a lot about the possibility of inventory increasing and March statistics are showing just that.  Inventory is up 58% this year compared to the same time in 2023. 

Sales are down.  You would think sales would be up as well but they're actually down 8% year-to date.  One reason for that of course is high interest rates. The overall economy has given some buyers cause for concern.  And the rental numbers are down slightly.   We know the Outer Banks has and will always have a great rental market but we are seeing a return to normalcy.  We just put a buyer in a beautiful $2.5 million house.  We met with one of the top rental companies here on the Outer Banks and their manager said they are returning to pre covid numbers.  Still very strong rents but they are down from the craziness of the past couple years.

Let's take a closer look at inventory. That 58% seems like a really big increase but what does it really mean today? We have 563 residential properties on the market today. Looking back at history in our MLS, the earliest online records date back to 2007.  In 2007 we had over 2700 listings😳.  So today's inventory of 563 doesn't sound like that much when you're looking at 2700. And that number stayed above 1500 pretty much all the way up to 2020 when we had just over 1300 listings.  So as you can see our inventory has a lot of room to grow.  We're only 40% of what it was in 2019! 

What do you think is going to happen when inventory doubles?  When we are at 1200 residential homes on the market (which is still lower than the average over the last 20 years), prices are going to drop.  There's just no other way to look at it.  If inventory increases back up to 60% or 70% more than where we are now, we are going to see prices dropping.

So my question to those of you that are thinking of selling, do you think prices are gonna go up in the next year?  If not what are you waiting for? 

On the buyer side it's a different question but still the same as it's always been.  Don't try to time the market. If you're looking to buy, especially a second home or investment home and if you can afford to buy, even with the current interest rates, rental income is still strong, giving you a great way to afford a beach house.  If you are looking to flip within a year or two, that might be the one situation that this market would not benefit you.  But most homeowners here on the Outer Banks plan to own the home 5-10 years or even longer as a legacy home that can be shared for generations.  Long term real estate investments such as these will almost always see an increase in value. 

So if you're looking to buy, don't worry about what's going on in the market, don't try to time it. The advantage you have right now is the lack of competition. 

If you're looking to sell, talk to your real estate agent.  Get the facts and get your home on the market when the timing is still great!

Lynn or I would love to hear from you and talk to you further about this!

Call, text or email anytime!  

randy@seakovegroup.com, 252-202-2573
lynn@seakovegroup.com, 252-305-0222

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